A significant increase in annual mean temperature was observed in all stations, with the magnitude varying from 0.03 C/year and 7.60% in DB station to 0.14 C/year and 31.30% at SD station. The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. Conversely, low flow conditions will intensify during the warm months. The annual minimum and maximum rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively. Enter the email address you signed up with and we'll email you a reset link. Spatiotemporal Patterns and Distribution of Temperature and Rainfall in Ethiopia, 5.5. The Geological Time Scale and Age Dating Techniques, 2.4. Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2. Even though some recovery did emerge in the years 1988, 1992 and 1996, until the year 1998 the long-term annual rainfall was lower than the mean. It is vital to link physical data analysis with endogenous knowledge and practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity. Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies on soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented. In order to correct change points in the time historical series, the Adapted Caussinus Mestre Algorithm for homogenising Networks of Temperature series homogeneity test is used. Geological Processes and the Resulting Landforms of Ethiopia and the Horn, 2.5. Other studies have focused on very limited stations and arrived at a conclusion regarding the characteristics of spatial climatic variability for entire regions (Gamachu 1988; Meze-Hausken 2004). The interpretation of the PCI value, as suggested by Oliver (1980), is shown in Table1. Mixed crop-livestock is the production system of the area and is perhaps the only source of livelihood for the majority of the population. Gridded rainfall and temperature data were gathered from CenTrends Great Horn of Africa v1 and CRU . The results of correlation analysis between crop production and climatic variables (rainfall and temperature) during the period 19972014 are shown in Table5. During thisseason, Ethiopia and the Horn come under the influence of the Equatorial Westerlies (Guineamonsoon) and Easterlies.Hence, the Guinea monsoon and the South easterly winds areresponsible for the rain in this season.ii. The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. Out of seven rainfall stations, only two stations (one at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend during belg season, while during bega season, four stations (three at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend. Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres. Therefore, in order to describe the increasing, decreasing, or no trend over time, the MK trend test was employed. In administrative terms, it is located in Basona Worena District, in the North Showa zone of Amhara regional state (Figure1), situated 180 km northeast of the capital city, Addis Ababa. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were . The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. The spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively. Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). s u m m a r y Due to global warming the climate of central Chile is expected to experience dramatic changes in the 21st century including declining precipitation, earlier streamflow peaks, and a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain. (2012) found that due to global climate change the eastern part of Africa, including Ethiopia, was drying out. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. Extreme precipitation and streamflow events are expected to become more frequent. 2013; Irannezhad et al. The spatial distribution pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall for the Beressa watershed is shown in Figure4. Water Resources Potentials and Development in Ethiopia, CHAPTER FIVE THE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 5.2. Our analyses demonstrate that there will be an increase in precipitation intensity and a decrease in frequency over Zambia from the middle of the 21st century. However, inEthiopia, as it is a highland country, tropical temperature conditions have no full spatialcoverage. Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. Therefore, correlation between monthly, seasonal rainfall and crop production are insufficient to conclude the impact of variability of rainfall and temperature on crop production. Warning: file(roboty.txt): failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /home/kmichalski/domains/mikatextiles.com/public_html/ustawienia/init.php on line 0 . Some other studies used seasonal or annual rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis (Conway & Schipper 2011). Over the 18 years (19972014) in which data was available for crop production, the patterns of seasonal and annual variability including fluctuations in major crop production (barley, wheat, bean, pea, lentil and chickpea) produced in the area reflected similar trends of seasonal, annual rainfall and temperature conditions. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. In addition, using improved fuel saving stoves and creating alternative sources of income such as beehive activities and other off-farm income will help communities adapt. Figure 1. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.064. The variation for the belg season is presented in Figure2. Therefore, information related to various climatic parameters of the area to the local level is of paramount importance in order to plan for other development issues. There has been a continuous decrease in the duration and distribution of rainfall during the last 35 years. Abstract: Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. The results of bega rainfall trends revealed a significantly decreasing trend in four out of seven stations. This study involves the observation of climatic variables, i.e. The magnitude of increasing trend during the belg season was found to be 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% in DB station and a significantly decreasing trend was found to be 0.12 mm/year and 10.00 in GIN station. Ethiopias daily temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages. It identifies regions that are experiencing particularly severe climate change impacts. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. Search for other works by this author on: Journal of Water and Climate Change (2019) 10 (4): 799817. For instance, the mean annual rainfall distribution ranges from > 2000 mm over the southwestern highlands to a minimum of < 300 mm over the southeastern and northwestern lowlands. (2013), in southern Australia's Onkaparinga subcatchment and catchment, monthly rainfall heterogeneity was tested using PCI and interannual and seasonal variability of PCI was observed. After total observation of the 35-year period, a record 16 years (45.7%) were lower than the total annual rainfall of the area. Elsewhere, in other parts of Ethiopia, similar conclusions are reached by Merasha (1999) and Seleshi & Zanke (2004) that the bega and belg rainfall seasons are more highly variable than the main rainy season (kiremit season). The principal sources of uncertainty for the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments. When the tropical depression is observed in the SWIO, the daily rainfall is significantly decreased. Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. 2015). Tesfa Worku, Deepak Khare, S. K. Tripathi; Spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall and temperature, and its implications for crop production. This is probably due to the fluctuation and variability of the seasonal and inter-annual rainfall pattern of the Beressa watershed during the last few decades, as indicated in Table3, which is similar to other studies (Muhire & Ahmed 2015; Zhao et al. Therefore, the consecutive occurrence of frequent tropical depression over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) overlapped with the recurrent drought of Ethiopia (1972 and 1984). This report compiles information from a wide variety of data and information sources. Barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the months of May and June. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. Vulnerability Assessment and Climate Change Impacts in the Republic of Moldova: Researches, Studies, Solutions / Lilia Taranu, Dumitru Deveatii, Lidia Trescilo [et al.] The study watershed lies between 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N. Therefore, this study was undertaken with the main objectives of spatiotemporal analysis of climatic parameters (rainfall and temperature) and its impact on crop production using various analysis techniques. Therefore, appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be included in the development agenda to reverse the trend. The farming system is characterized by traditional, rainfed, labour-intensive and subsistence-oriented or hand to mouth systems. Notably, there is a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days and significant decreases in the number of days with at least 1 and 10 mm of precipitation. This study investigates trends of climate extreme indices in the Komadugu-Yobe Basin (KYB) based on observed data of the period 1971-2017 as well as regional climate model (RCM) simulations for the historical period (1979-2005), the near future (2020-2050), and the far future (2060-2090). Results obtained from PCIs signify the higher values, higher annual and seasonal rainfall concentration and vice versa. Winter rainfall regionThis rainfall region receives rain from the northeasterly winds. 2015; Pingale et al. Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). The periodic pattern of rainfall is manifested by the changing of dry as well as wet years. Is it warming or cooling? Fluctuating productivity and hence food insecurity for the area is due to long-term variability in the annual and seasonal rainfall. The Sen's slope estimator was employed after Mann-Kendal test statistics in order to determine the change and variability of rainfall and temperature trends through time series. 2014). Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. Such studies ignored the localized trends of rainfall and temperature, particularly in most highlands of Ethiopia. The average rainfallvaries from less than 500 to 1,000 mm.iv. Simulations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model indicate that a drier and warmer future will shift the location of snow line to higher elevations and reduce the number of days with precipitation falling as snow. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). In the years between 1981 and 1984, the annual total rainfall was far lower than the mean long-term rainfall. Even though the rainfall indicates seasonal and inter-annual variability, the area is characterized by a bimodal rainfall regime, with maximum rainfall concentration during kiremit (summer) season, which extends from June to September. 2011). During these seasons, rainfall is more highly variable than the main rainy season of the area. Spatiotemporal Distribution of TemperatureAltitude is an important element in determining temperature of Ethiopia and the Horn. Additionally, studies of rainfall and temperature variations in larger areas would in general be of little use for local level agricultural production (Gebre et al. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Center Task Force Report: Games for a New Climate: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks, Analysis of rainfall variability and farmers perception towards it in Agrarian Community of Southern Ethiopia, This site uses cookies. Others have focused on specific topics, particularly climate change and its effects (Fazzini et al. Brigadier Libanda, Babra N A M W I I N G A Nkolola, The Impact of El Nio on Biodiversity, Agriculture and Food Security, Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Assessing climate change projections in the Volta Basin using the CORDEX-Africa climate simulations and statistical bias-correction, Kofi Antwi Yeboah, Komlavi Akpoti, Eric Mortey, Samuel Akowuah Okyereh, Changing temperature and precipitation extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region: an analysis of CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations and projections, Projected trends in mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature in China from simulations, Climate change impacts on an alpine watershed in Chile: Do new model projections change the story, Future humidity trends over the western United States in the CMIP5 global climate models and variable infiltration capacity hydrological modeling system, Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations, Simulation of historical and projected climate change in arid and semiarid areas by CMIP5 models. The details of these stations have already been presented in Table2. This study assessed the historical (19832005) and future (20262100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). Global climate models predict relative humidity (RH) in the western US will decrease at a rate of about 0.1 0.6 percentage points per decade, albeit with seasonal differences (most drying in spring and summer), geographical variability (greater declines in the interior), stronger reductions for greater anthropogenic radiative forcing, and notable spread among the models. Location, Shape and Size of Ethiopia and the Horn, CHAPTER TWO THE GEOLOGY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 2.2. You can download the paper by clicking the button above. **10% level of significance. As presented in Table3, the Sen's slope estimator indicates an upward trend in four stations and a downward trend in three stations for annual rainfall. Rainfall Regions of EthiopiaBased on rainfall distribution, both in space and time, four rainfall regions can be identifiedin Ethiopia and the Horn. Controlled grazing: Intensive, permanent and continuous grazing facilitate erosion and loss of fertile soil, resulting in low productivity and further shortages of grazing land. 2006; Rashid et al. The percentage change over a period of time can be obtained from Sen's median slope and mean by assuming the linear trend in the long-term series using the following formula: In statistical terms, the moving average is also known as running average, used in order to explore a set of various data by creating an average value of various subsets for a data set. In view of this, the incidence of food shortage is a common occurrence. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. From Figure3, it is confirmed that the maximum temperature has continuously increased by about 1.10 C, whereas the minimum temperature has increased by about 0.70 C. To avoid the generalities inherent in regional projections, projections focussing on an individual country are necessary. 2013). The focus of this research is to introduce the application of the polynomial neural network of the group method of data handling (GMDH) for the first time in the regional area of the New South Wales state of Australia. 2005; Batisani & Yarnal 2010; Randell & Gray 2016). Previous Topic. About 60 percent of the rain is in autumn and 40 percent in spring. (2014), it was concluded that a general tendency of increasing warm temperature, extreme variability and inconsistent precipitation trend was recorded in Ethiopia. Many researchers have undertaken trend analysis studies of the climate in some other parts of Ethiopia (Addisu et al. The analysis of vulnerability related to climate changes in Ethiopia implies that in the coming decades climate variability and volatility will threaten the social and economic order (damage to natural resources, agricultural productivity, water resources and ecosystems); therefore, the incidence and intensity of drought and famine occurrence is likely to increase. During this time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the south easterliesbring moist winds. The convergence of Northeast Trade winds and the Equatorial Westerlies forms theITCZ, which is a low-pressure zone.The inter-annual oscillation of the surface position of theITCZ causes a variation in the Wind flow patterns over Ethiopia and the Horn. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 December 2019; 10 (4): 799817. However, it hasno significant coverage compared to other seasons. Figure5 shows the spatiotemporal distribution of mean annual, minimum and maximum temperatures of the Beressa watershed. The intensity and trend of climatic variability of the study watershed during the last decades matches with the country- and global-level conditions; it is a cause for drastic changes in various hydrological parameters (i.e. Continuously increasing temperature, together with the variability and fluctuation of seasonal and inter-annual rainfall is a root cause for the decrease and fluctuation of crop production. 2008; Subash et al. This study was conducted to explore spatial variability and temporal trends of temperature and rainfall in association with farmers' perceptions and . As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation. In the last few decades, incidence of climate change related hazards have manifested in the form of recurrent drought, erosive rain, rainfall variability and flood events (Kenabatho et al. The possible reason may be monthly, sub-monthly time scale, temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature, which are determinant factors of production. We used 12-member ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate climate-attributed changes in the hydrology of the Mataquito river basin in central Chile, South America. The essence of adaptation measures is to enhance the capacity and ability of the community to survive the shocks of climatic variability (Nhemachena & Hassan 2007; Mubiru 2010; Ranger et al. 1982; Burn & Elnur 2002; Yue et al. However, local farmers evaluate climatic variability in relation to their crop productivity. Specifically, we examine and evaluate multi-model, multi-scenario climate change projections and seven extreme temperature and precipitation indices over the eastern Himalaya (EH) and western Himalaya-Karakoram (WH) regions for the 21st century. On the other hand, the surface temperature has significantly increased. 2015; Wagesho & Yohannes 2016). Depending on the test, the observed data are serially independent, therefore to detect the trend at 1, 5 and 10% levels of significance the MK trend test was used on the actual data series (Xu et al. However, in the belg season during the period 19802014 the five years' average moving annual and seasonal rainfall was considerably variable. As already explained. The long-term rainfall trend was assessed monthly, seasonally i.e. Discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia. Observed Data Social fencing is another mechanism that can be adopted in the region. In this regard, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a widely used method employed by many scholars across the globe (Oliver 1980; Apaydin et al. Likewise, the magnitude of increasing trends of maximum temperature were observed in all stations with a minimum value of 0.023 C/year in GIN station and a maximum value of 0.21 C/year in ENW station. Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess. (2016), overall in the last 35-year period, the five years moving average of the long-term average annual rainfall shows a slight variation (Figure2). It builds on, among others, on the recommendations of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, but a substantial amount of information that became available afterwards has also been included.While this study is not meant to be a comprehensive overview of all aspects of climate change impact on the RMs economy it does reflect the breadth and depth of researches that had been done in the RM to date, and it provides a link between a global phenomenon and the sectors development issues facing the country. The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. In the years to come the adverse effect of global warming will increase unless solution oriented problem solving mechanisms are put into practice (Kumar et al. Based on the MannKendall test (Zmk) results, the mean annual temperature revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in five stations (two stations at 5% significance level and three stations at 10% significance level). The south-easterlies bring rainfall from the IndianOcean. The moving average is possibly acquired by considering the initial subset average. However, studies focusing on Zambia are still limited and future climate variability is poorly understood. 2017a, 2017b). The northeasterly winds crossing the Red Seacarry very little moisture and supplies rain only to the Afar lowlands and the Red Sea coastalareas.iv. Registration confirmation will be emailed to you. To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). On the other hand, 19 years (54.3%) recorded more than the annual average rainfall. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Climate Change/Global Warming: Causes, Consequences and Response Mechanisms, CHAPTER SIX SOILS, NATURAL VEGETATION AND WILDLIFE RESOURCES OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN. However, there is a slight temperature increase in summer. 33 days from submission to first decision on average. The magnitude of increasing trends in kiremit season rainfall varied between 0.33 mm/year and a percentage change of 6.13% (DBS station) to 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% (DB). However, during bega season the trend of all stations was downward. Seasonal or Temporal VariabilitiesWhat winds bring summer rainfall for Ethiopian highlands?The rainfall is highly variable both in amount and distribution across regions and seasons.The seasonal and annual rainfall variations are results of the macro-scale pressure systemsand monsoon flows which are related to the changes in the pressure systems discussed in theprevious sections of this chapter. 2016). Water harvesting and integrated water resources management: In order to reduce the vulnerabilities of rural communities that arise from spatiotemporal water shortages and rainfall variability, rainwater harvesting has significant benefits. Five years moving average temperature (19802014). This global warming (increase in surface temperature) may influence the long-term precipitation pattern; in addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of weather shock has led to an increase in sea level (Barnett et al. Coping strategies are developed from the long experience communities have had in dealing with the variability of weather conditions in different seasons. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. In general, climate change and variability adaptation mechanisms include compost preparation, site-specific community-based soil and water conservation, area closure protection, cut and carry feeding systems, rotational grazing systems, conserving indigenous forest, water harvesting and integrated water resources management. 2005). Seasonal analysis of rainfall obtained from MK test statistic results are presented in Table3. Therefore, given the prolonged climatic variability of the Beressa watershed, the following coping and adaptation mechanisms are suggested. Overall, the five years moving average trend of average annual temperature of the study watershed is increasing by about 0.95 C. In Ethiopia, as in allplaces in the tropics, the air is frost free and changes in solar angles are small making intensesolar radiation. 2014). 2018 May 30;190(6):368. doi: 10.1007/s10661-018 . 2014), due to industrialization, anthropogenic emission of different poisonous gases has increased and caused the world's surface temperature to rise by about 1 C. According to Anderson (1942), in order to exclude the influence of serial correlation, before using MK test statistics, serial autocorrelation is tested by Lag-I autocorrelation using different levels of significance (0.01, 0.05 and 0.1%). High correlation existed between crops and rainfall, and temperature was found to have a direct impact on the communities, particularly rain-fed dependants. The area is characterized by diverse topographic conditions such as mountainous and dissected terrain with steep slopes. 2005). The time series of five years moving average minimum and maximum temperature was analysed for the period 19802014. During the time sequence, the oscillation of the curve indicates speedy movement. They are limited to the lowlands in the peripheries.Away from the peripheries the land begins to rise gradually and considerably, culminating inpeaks in various parts of the country. The annual maxima of 1 d and consecutive 5 d precipitation are also projected to increase. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. (2011), adaptation strategies are an important mechanism for managing climatic change and variability.
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